My bet – or, as last as things move these days, this month’s bet – is that we’ll start to see a merging of the forms.

As Malcolm Gladwell writes in this week’s New Yorker, the biggest handicap that underdogs give themselves is engaging in competition on the terms of the stronger party.  An underdog’s chance of victory nearly triples if it finds a way to not play the game.  Right now newspapers – whether they admit it or not – find themselves the underdog for information distribution but still (so far) the best at obtaining information.  So why do they insist on sharing the same distribution models as their potential destroyers?

The New York Times' new reader uses AIR capabilities to flow text and show video. (Credit: Rafe Needleman / CNET)

The New York Times is one of the best at this.  To my knowledge, it was the first with a dedicated iPhone application, it looks great on a Kindle, and its new Adobe AIR format is simply spectacular.  Still, as everyone knows, the Times is hurting and in talks with everyone from Google to Geffen to find a suitor.

So instead of wringing our hands about public trusts and eroding institutions, perhaps we should be asking of our Third Estate “What can you do to adapt?” Something basic to your business model that doesn’t play to the other guys’strength?  Here are a few I’ve thought about:

• Does it really need to be daily? If people are already receiving a stream of real-time news everywhere they go and at their desks, do newspapers need to be real-time, too?  Local ‘alternatives’ with a more magazine-like format and deeper stories like the Bay Guardian and SF Weekly are well positioned to take over many of the essential local functions of a newspaper – and with lower circulation, their ad rates are less prohibitive, meaning they get the bar, restaurant and nightlife ads that are essentially blocked from big dailies.  Reliance on major retailers to be your biggest advertisers is a recipe for death in an era where retail doors will close continuously, like, forever.  (But what about the recent SF/LA closure of The Onion?  I’ll address that in a minute.)
• Does the news need to lead? Every news site has a ‘Most Frequently Viewed’ or ‘Most Frequently E-Mailed’feature.� It’s very rare that the top stories, even on the most serious sites, are today’s news. (Or as SFist notes about the Huffington Post today:  Boobies.  Boobies. Boobies. Boobies. Boob.)  I would hate to see our locals ignore the news, but why couldn’t it be treated like a magazine cover  with offers of advice, news coverage, quizzes… Things that reel the reader in.Here are today’s SF Chronicle leads:
  * A stricter, drier Bay to Breakers
  * Craigslist cuts ‘erotic services’ section
  * If state cuts too deep, it loses stimulus funds
  * Senate testimony sheds light on alleged torture
  * Young boost diversity as population agesSeriously, not a single one of these lines would sell a magazine at the checkstand.  No editorial viewpoint expressed, no help offered – simply no answer to Why Buy?  Why not feature elements from throughout the paper?  ”Take your medicine, it’s good for you” doesn’t work for marketers in any other industry, including medicine.  Why is it the norm here?
• Does it need to be shaped like a newspaper? Why not a glossy cover?  Billions of magazines have done just fine that way.  In particular, I;m a fan of The Atlantic and The New Yorker’s newsstand strategy: a single compelling image with a flap violator that entices the reader to pick up the magazine and look inside.
• Can it be targeted better than “It’s local, it’s yours”? In printing ‘All The News That Fits’, newspapers lose the single biggest weapon a marketer has: the freedom to select an audience.  It’s wonderful that the Chronicle tries to express the region’s diversity and interests, but I think it’s fair to say that the news interests of, for example, a 70-year old woman in the Sunset and a 25-year old man in The Mission are very different.  So how come the same information in the same format is being sold to both?  Using copy splits, could different front pages go to different neighborhoods – and not just regional sections to outlying areas?
  It’s also worth noting that this could open up new revenue streams.  In my opinion, one of the seeds of the demise of The Onion in SF/LA is that it didn’t take the thinly-veiled prostitution ads that are easy money for the Bay Guardian and SF Weekly.  With CraigsList now discontinuing those same ads, that’s a lot of advertising cash set free.  Where will it go?Well, if you had a well-targeted newspaper that didn’t need to worry about offending its audience with certain content/ads, you just might be able to scoop it up.  So, yes, I’m imagining a world where Candy TS Outcalls replaces Macy’s.)
• Further, why is it serving so much of the area? In an era when advertisers pay more for the specificity of an audience, why is the San Francisco Chronicle the leading paper of Contra Costa County?  And Oakland?  And most of remote Northern California?  Surely some of these readers are more profitable than others.  And those that aren’t can get their news somewhere else.
• Does every copy need to have the same content? When I received the Sunday paper, the first thing I did every week was throw away 50% or more of it.  Why not allow a la carte sections?
• Is it automatic for its customers – and especially its best ones? Mark Cuban – who got me thinking about this originally and reels off another thousand or so ideas in his blog post on the subject – points out that his local paper was blowing one of the very basic elements of keeping him engaged: pricing policies.  Aside from receiving no volume discount, Cuban says that the billing policies discourage people from staying involved.  Why aren’t subscriptions annual = or far more?  In the core areas, closest to the printer and the most attractive identified customers, especially those that own their home and are less likely to move, why not offer 5 years, 10 years, even a lifetime subscription?
• Finally, what unique advantages can newspapers bring to ‘real-time’ media? Yes, there’s still an opportunity for symmetric warfare for newspapers.  My old colleague Sebastian Provencher at Praized Media recently blogged on just this with regard to the Yellow Pages, but it applies equally well to local papers.  His 2300-word post on real-time information flow between local merchants and customers should be required reading for local media outlets that seeks to make its revenue from being an intermediary in these relationships.  You should have a look, but I can boil it down to one tantalizing word: souq.

I’m curious for your thoughts on this since I know my few readers are newspaper lovers, too.  Don’t forget to comment!

Joba Chamberlain opens the second game ever at the new Yankee Stadium. Empty seats outnumber specators in the exclusive areas behind home plate and the dugouts. (Flickr / Fansherpa)

With all the fuss over the empty luxury seats at the new Yankee Stadium, I was mildly surprised to find something similar happening in my own backyard.  At Sunday’s A’s-Rays game at the Oakland Coliseum, all the ingredients for a great day at the ballyard were in place: sunny April weather, last year’s AL champions in town and a Sunday afternoon.  What we found instead was a micro-market in disarray.  As the credit markets teetered last October, the market for sports tickets has apparently fallen apart as well.

The first indication there was a problem was the total lack of online ticketing activity.  There were practically no offers on CraigsList, even from brokers, and none at all on eBay.  At the walk-up ticket booth, we found that we could buy any section in the house, including the Diamond Level.  This should simply never be the case. The Diamond Level is a very limited “VIP” area, maybe 60 seats tops, right behind the plate on the playing field level.  Seats go for $225 and include free food and drink service for the whole game.

Weirdest of all was the scene inside the stadium.  The A’s bifurcate each of the two seating levels – a minimum of two pricing levels in each deck.  In both decks, there was a cluster of people behind the plate, emptiness for several sections as the seating moved along the infield, another cluster in the sections where the new pricing tier begins, again fading to nothing.

The mystery is why shouldn’t the people forced out to the outfield be able to sit in these empty “mezzo-sections.”  The answer could come from a nimble dynamic pricing system at game time.  As airlines like Virgin and JetBlue have discovered with exit rows sold at check-in, why not ask fans as they arrive if they would like to purchase a better seat for an extra few dollars?  It would be an easy thing to equip ushers with Palm-style barcode and credit card machines like those carried by the clerks at The Apple Store.  Everybody gets the opportunity to move closer (or elect not to), getting rid of the weird empty spaces and (I’m assuming) presenting a better, more invigorating environment for the home team.  (I know they’re supposed to ignore the crowd, but ask any actor or musician if they’d rather play to a full orchestra than have the front rows empty and the crowd loosely dispersed.)

Meanwhile across the bay, the Giants are trying out a number of dynamic pricing policies.  First, the team partnered up with a firm to build elastic pricing around its unsold inventory for the least attractive games. Last week, though, came the real reckoning – and a big indication that the team is running scared about its attendance.  Ticket prices were dropped 40% for the Giants series this week against the Dodgers, traditionally the most attractive opponent.  Granted the team is trying to stir up interest for later in the year – it appears they’ll be competitive in a moderately challenging division – but to have to do this so early and against the team’s best natural rivarly is surprising.  One wonders how scared the Giants are about advance sales for the rest of the year.

In the Oakland A’s case, the lack of a fluid ticket market is framed by the fact that the Oakland Coliseum is a horrible dump, getting dumpier every day.  The tarps in the third deck look weathered and depressing, while the bathrooms, parking lot and facilities remain some of the worst for a major league sport.  Nevertheless the empty seat patterns – along with all the unsold display ad inventory throughout the stadium – are clear indications that baseball is not recession-proof.  There are easy ways to make profit from making markets more efficient.  Let’s see if the A’s and their brethren take up the challenge.

Fresh skunk does not smell anything like the mildly unpleasant musk you occasionally pick up driving down the street. It is insanely intense. Imagine eating a large moist purple onion while standing next to a pile of burning tires and you’re about halfway there.

The tire smell is especially tricky; it seems more like an artificial chemical solvent than anything borne of nature. Because of the solvent reek, in our tizzy we made a bad mental leap: “it’s not skunk, she’s been maced by someone trying to break into the house!” Which led us to our a series of mistakes…

1. Do not bring the dog in the house
2. Do not pour water over the dog
3. Do not call the vet in a panic — they’ll tell you to come in because you sound panicked
4. Do not put the nearest set of clothes to go to the vet; these will now be trash
5. Do not put the dog in the car

The vet shooed us away as fast as they could and gave us the magic combination to get the stink off the dog (hydrogen peroxide, baking soda, Dawn). But by then the damage was done and the dog was the only thing left on the property that didn’t reek.

When we picked up the elements of the dog-cleaning kit from Safeway, the checkout clerk took one look at our haul and asked us if we had a dog that got hit by a skunk. How’d she know that? Attacks are so common in Oakland this time of year that the recipe was posted in the break room. They left that bit out of the disclosures when we moved over here.

Over a month ago, Amanda Stokes went missing about three blocks from my house.  Posters are up all over the neighborhood.

SFGate: Homicide police join search for Oakland woman missing since Nov. 25

This is the Christmas window display at my old neighborhood toy store, Sweet Dreams.  It’s incredible that this store has survived 35+ years in the face of toy retailer consolidation, but this is a credit both to the store’s inventory policies (plastic franchise toys held to a minimum, lots of personality in displays and a top-notch childrens’ book section) and to the good shoppers of Berkeley.

It helps to have window displays with such character, too.  With the demise of the neighborhood merchant in favor of mass merchants, the fanciful window display is coming to be something of a lost art with Macy’s holding a monopoly on the public consciousness of what makes a great window.  (Kittens & puppies, apparently…)

This isn’t the greatest photo, but explaining a little detail here goes a long way.  This is a penguin’s kitchen.  On the fridge is a To-Do List that includes “Cooking” and “Make friends with polar bears.”  The big polar bear and penguin are slicing vegetables to go on the stove at left.  Penguins and bears of all ages frolic at the “kids tables” in the foreground.

Question: why does Google give the link to Toys R Us when I search for Sweet Dreams?  That’s a nasty prank.  And why a web site for Sweet Dreams’ sister candy store (not nearly as fun) and not the toy store?

Berkeley Daily Planet:  As Toys ‘R Us Downsizes, Local Toy Stores Thrive

This is not your typical after-work place.  The brands on offer taste utterly unlike your neighborhood bar’s outlay — and, critical to understand — these beers are strong.  The least alcoholic beer stood at 5.5% (10% more than a Budweiser) and the most topped out at a heavy-duty 11%.  That’s over 35% more alcohol content than the most effective malt liquors.  So don’t plan to stay for more than two drinks.  This is sipping stuff, not gulping.

And don’t count on any TV sports, either.  As overheard by the group at the end of the bar: “This is more like a wine bar.”  If it’s any indication of the environment, Thelonious Monk was playing and a lively argument was had by patrons over which drummer played on Monk’s Music, while a solo patron at the end of the bar powered through the Sunday crossword — on Wednesday.

The Trappist (Google map)
Reviewed on Yelp
Chowhound report

As usual, the baseball playoffs took over my life for an unwelcome amount of time in early October. The A’s showed signs of going deep, but lucky for my free time — and for my wallet, since I was sitting on very expensive tickets for the World Series — they reverted to their usual playoff-choking form in the ALCS. With the team all but moved to distant Fremont by 2010, it was time to start disengaging anyway. I’ve got three more years to find a way to remain a  fan before the A’s move a full hour’s drive from my San Francisco abode.

In the meantime, I have these guys to help Bring The Dissent:
[youtube SlTvSUCCqPo]

In the early 1950s, the California Division of Highways was loving its job. Combined with President Eisenhower’s push for the Federal Interstate system — partly for commerce and partly for Cold War homeland security — the nation’s freeway planners were give virtual free reign to plan whatever they wanted. Treating the nation’s communities as if they were networks of Fisher-Price toys scattered on their bedroom floor, the planners looked at every possible throughway and connection point as a place to run a freeway.

By 1959, San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors, Mayor Alioto and several neighborhood groups had turned back many of the most megalomaniacal plans, including turning Van Ness into an elevated freeway, running expressways along either side of Golden Gate Park, and wrapping a road through Fishermen’s Wharf to connect the Bay Bridge & Golden Gate Bridge. Nevertheless, it was too late to stop the Embarcadero Freeway, but the 1989 earthquake took care of that road at least.

SF vets like myself will attest that the City was indeed easier to get around with the Embarcadero Freeway and the on-ramp at Golden Gate & Gough, but I’m sure we’d all say also agree that what’s been gained by their removal — the return of the Embarcadero Promenade and Hayes Valley, respectively — is a trade we’d make any day. Almost as if The Wizard Of Oz himself ordained it, those areas went from depressing and grey to lively and technicolor within months of the removal of the oppressive elevated throughways.

Perhaps California’s new emissions law will all turn out to be ineffectual in the end. As the Chronicle points out today, if California is able to achieve the targets in this week’s legislation, the world’s carbon emissions will be reduced by only .5%. (California, the world’s 12th largest economy, makes 2% of Earth’s emissions; the state seeks to reduce by 25%.) The Law of Unintended Consequences always lurks; the dismantling of CDH’s original SF freeway plan may have done more to encourage urban sprawl in the Bay Area than to end it, thereby driving up California’s fuel usage and air pollution levels.

But try to imagine San Francisco today with all those freeways. It would not be worth living in or visiting. It would not be a great city.

So today I’m damn proud of my state for taking on a leadership role in the fight against Global Warming. And (dare I say it) I’m thrilled for the bravery of my term-limited Legislature and Governor to push through Green laws that could help make the world a better, healthier place, even though it could hurt the State’s economic growth in the short-term.

San Francisco CITYSCAPE – Freeway Revolt Map
BikeSummer – The Freeway Revolt

Sunday, June 18^th was a glorious San Francisco summer day with nary a wisp of fog in sight, the perfect opening day for the city’s traditional free Stern Grove concert series. We showed up at 8am to grab prime seats, but the real action that morning was taking place in random bars around town as Brazil took the pitch against Australia. After the match ended, a workmanlike dismantling of the Socceroos, the Brazilian fans — and where did they all come from! who knew SF was so full of Brazilians! — made their way to the Grove to hear opening act Seu Jorge.

Yes, it was kismet. Brazil ruled the day. A glorious victory. A glorious day. Free outdoor Brazilian party music. The stars were aligned with that strange planet thing in the middle of Brazil’s weird flag. The Grove was rockin’, chock-full of sunning dancing Brazilian expats and their newfound empathizers.

But now it was time for the headliner. And Aimee Mann took the stage with nothing but an acoustic guitar and a bass player.

Don’t get me wrong. I love Aimee Mann and she was the reason I was there, but this was a bizarre piece of booking by the Stern Grove folks.

Picture if you will the party that’s come before. And then Aimee took the stage:

Sa-aaaave Me
C’mon and Saaa-ya-ave Meeee

If it was a room, the air would’ve gone right out of it. All of the boisterous Brazilians looked utterly lost and defeated, like the hangover had hit 12 hours earlier than expected. Nobody could believe what they were hearing or seeing. Who was that skinny lady singing morose ballads? What happened to our party?

And from this incident, I surmised that Brazil may not be the unstoppable World Cup force that it’s reputation led us to believe. Just slow the tempo. Add a French model and a PlayStation. Voilà!

[Soundtrack]
Seu Jorge – Life On Mars
A whole lotta Aimee Mann MP3 blog links

I wonder whether this sort of thing is good for tourism. Either you praise San Francisco for its humorous artistic heart or Run For Your Life and Never Come Back! In any case, what I would have given to see the reactions of the people in The Apple Store.

More coverage: Laughing Squid » Zombies Invade San Francisco!

From today’s New Orleans Times-Picayune:

Brooks and his unit came to New Orleans not long after serving a year of combat duty in Iraq, taking on gunfire and bombs, while losing comrades with regularity. Still, the scene at the Convention Center, where they conducted an evacuation this week, left him shell-shocked.

“I ain’t got the stomach for it, even after what I saw in Iraq,” said Brooks, referring to the freezer where the bulk of the bodies sat decomposing. “In Iraq, it’s one-on-one. It’s war. It’s fair. Here, it’s just crazy. It’s anarchy. When you get down to killing and raping people in the streets for food and water … And this is America. This is just 300 miles south of where I live.”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My Fellow Californians,

The chaos and misery that has befallen our friends in the South should give pause to all of us who live out here in Earthquake Country. It’s not unrealistic to expect similar things to happen here when The Big One strikes. And there’s a 50% chance that “The Big One” will strike the SF Bay Area in the next 30 years. That’s well within all of our lifetimes.

Marc Reisner, the leading historian of Western water policy and author of Cadillac Desert (ranked 61st on Modern House’s 100 best nonfiction books of the 20th Century and the basis of the PBS mini-series), posthumously published A Dangerous Place in 2003. In this book, he theorized about what would happen if there was an 8.0 quake on the North Hayward fault, which runs from Hayward up towards the Carquinez Straits.

At a minimum, the result will be the destruction of:
* all Bay Area freeways, airports, tunnels and bridges
* the gas & electric infrastructure
* more than 2/3 of California’s drinking water supply (as a result of the failure of the decrepit privately-maintained levee system in the Delta)

Add disruption to phones, ports and trains, and it’s realistic to expect that no supplies, food, water, people or communications could get in or out of the Bay Area for many days after a major quake.

You can read more here about Bay Area damage scenarios. This article is East Bay-centric, but it is valid for any California community.

If we’ve learned anything from Katrina, it’s that natural disasters that we know are possible can & will eventually happen. And that we can’t count on civil society or government to function properly in times of stress. We see that not just in Louisiana today but have seen it for centuries in disasters & conflicts around the world. We have to be ready at all times to be self-sufficient at a moment’s notice.

Please take a few moments to look through the resources on this site and this one. There are lots of great tips for preparing you & your loved ones and keeping them safe in a civic emergency.

On this site, you can see different earthquake scenarios for each of the major NorCal faults and check out how your neighborhood will fare.

Below is a mail from my friend Nicole, which makes a great starter for thinking about what you need to know & do.

Be Safe!
Shawn

—— Forwarded Message
From: Nicole Grigg

Hello dear friends..

Firstly I hope all of your friends and family are well if you have folks in the devastated areas down South. Now is the time for all of us to get prepared with our earthquake/disaster kits because if the deal goes down… food, water and a way out… coupled with a plan to rendezvous with loved ones are all that really matter. This is earthquake country.. no more playing.. let’s get ready!

This is my rally cry… along with some common sense suggestions.. for those that I care for. What ever it is I want us all to get through it and survive.

– Your earthquake kits should include: A first aid kit, batteries, flashlights, candles, lighter, a sharp knife. At least eight big containers of water… peanut butter, power bars, tuna cans, a can opener pain reliever etc. Keep a case of water bottles in the trunk of you car. Don’t forget prescription medication (I’m sure i’m forgetting stuff but this is a start )

– Where will you go if we have to evacuate and how will you get there? The roads will be jammed– For some.. riding your bike to the south bay may be easiest.

– Make sure you have an out of state contact to call and be accounted for.

– Have pair of sneakers stored at your desk just in case you have to walk out to safety. It could be miles away!

– Shelters do not generally take animals. Figure out how you will deal with your pet now.

– Get renters insurance. Perhaps it doesn’t cover an earthquake but if your neighbor lights your home on fire at least you won’t be left without anything.

– If you have loved ones who will have special problems escaping (elderly, specially abled), you need to have a plan in place for them.

Again.. this is just a start but we must do something. We know that we live on the faults. We don’t have the the luxury of not being prepared any longer.

This is my love song.. let’s all take care. If anyone else has suggstions please pass them along.

Two different friends went to see Beck at the Civic Auditorium on Tuesday, and neither of them left as happy customers. “Too contrived,” hissed Darin. Both agreed that the sound sucked. (Somewhere Bill Graham rolls around in his grave knowing that that horrible concrete pit bears his name.)

Perhaps Darin & Veronica would have been better off if they headed out to the Mission for dinner. Kid Guero gave an improptu serenade at a burrito joint, apparently ticking off the usual crowd of mariachis pretty good.

SFist: Hey, Who’s That Gringo Mariachi?

I’m proud of my Berkeley hometown and its radical and confusing heritage. I take pride in walking around San Francisco and pointing out countercultural landmarks like the Jefferson Airplane house and City Lights Books. I really don’t mind the Grateful Dead (American Beauty, anyway). But I’m also happy to keep these things in the past, free of grey hair and acid burnout.

Entroporium guest correspondent Holiday Darin reports in on what happened when some hippie also-rans recently played The Fillmore:

Daryl and Tom got me to go to see Hot Tuna Friday night. (I’m embarrassed just TYPING that band name. Ranks among the dumbest all time.) You know…I figured Jorma and Jack … two legends ……….. whatever. The first set was acoustic. I did all I could to remain upright holding out hope the second half would justify my attendance. It didn’t.

I drove everyone there so I couldn’t leave. I figured I could do a good, thorough tour of the Hall and its posters to kill time. Fatigue overcame me though, so I sat down. A woman woke me up suggesting I go with her outside for some fresh air as they don’t really like patrons sleeping at the Fillmore. After I got over my indignity (and momentary embarrassment), I realized she had a good idea. Fifteen minutes later, I gave (electric) Hot Tuna (f*cking “old-timey”, hippy blues…) another try. Boredom. This time I toured the downstairs. 15 or 20 minutes later, a man woke me as I leaned in a chair against a wall saying something about not being so wasted (I wasn’t…. I was bored!) and maybe I should follow him outside for some fresh air.

There you have it….asked to leave the Fillmore twice in one night. A first.

[Soundtrack - acid rock before it got all out of control]
Jefferson Airplane – Plastic Fantastic Lover.mp3

This puts a whole new positive spin on Spinal Tap opening for a puppet show.

The Sippy Cups – I Wanna Be Elated(video/quicktime Object)
The Sippy Cups – Who Loves The Sun? (video/quicktime Object)

Check out The Sippy Cups on the afternoon of Sunday, May 29th at http://www.rickshawstop.com/.

I’m pleased to announce that Ruby did not see her shadow because I distracted her into looking at me. Happy Groundhog Day!

I would guess it was a year old — it acted like a puppy, but was large enough to be full-grown. Its ears were not clipped, so it’s not evident that this dog was being raised for mischief.

I called Animal Control. The guy said he’d already had two calls on the same dog, so he was on the case. He was aware of the problems with the corner house — he was actually the guy who took the dogs out on that awful day — but I told him I hadn’t seen any activity in there for a while.

Nevertheless, we’re going to keep a close lookout. The last time we had an incident around here came when some pits didn’t like the looks of a Jack Russell walking past their house.