San Francisco, April 1906
From today’s New Orleans Times-Picayune:
Brooks and his unit came to New Orleans not long after serving a year of combat duty in Iraq, taking on gunfire and bombs, while losing comrades with regularity. Still, the scene at the Convention Center, where they conducted an evacuation this week, left him shell-shocked.
“I ain’t got the stomach for it, even after what I saw in Iraq,” said Brooks, referring to the freezer where the bulk of the bodies sat decomposing. “In Iraq, it’s one-on-one. It’s war. It’s fair. Here, it’s just crazy. It’s anarchy. When you get down to killing and raping people in the streets for food and water … And this is America. This is just 300 miles south of where I live.”
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My Fellow Californians,
The chaos and misery that has befallen our friends in the South should give pause to all of us who live out here in Earthquake Country. It’s not unrealistic to expect similar things to happen here when The Big One strikes. And there’s a 50% chance that “The Big One” will strike the SF Bay Area in the next 30 years. That’s well within all of our lifetimes.
Marc Reisner, the leading historian of Western water policy and author of Cadillac Desert (ranked 61st on Modern House’s 100 best nonfiction books of the 20th Century and the basis of the PBS mini-series), posthumously published A Dangerous Place in 2003. In this book, he theorized about what would happen if there was an 8.0 quake on the North Hayward fault, which runs from Hayward up towards the Carquinez Straits.
At a minimum, the result will be the destruction of:
* all Bay Area freeways, airports, tunnels and bridges
* the gas & electric infrastructure
* more than 2/3 of California’s drinking water supply (as a result of the failure of the decrepit privately-maintained levee system in the Delta)
Add disruption to phones, ports and trains, and it’s realistic to expect that no supplies, food, water, people or communications could get in or out of the Bay Area for many days after a major quake.
You can read more here about Bay Area damage scenarios. This article is East Bay-centric, but it is valid for any California community.
If we’ve learned anything from Katrina, it’s that natural disasters that we know are possible can & will eventually happen. And that we can’t count on civil society or government to function properly in times of stress. We see that not just in Louisiana today but have seen it for centuries in disasters & conflicts around the world. We have to be ready at all times to be self-sufficient at a moment’s notice.
Please take a few moments to look through the resources on this site and this one. There are lots of great tips for preparing you & your loved ones and keeping them safe in a civic emergency.
On this site, you can see different earthquake scenarios for each of the major NorCal faults and check out how your neighborhood will fare.
Below is a mail from my friend Nicole, which makes a great starter for thinking about what you need to know & do.
Be Safe!
Shawn
—— Forwarded Message
From: Nicole Grigg
Hello dear friends..
Firstly I hope all of your friends and family are well if you have folks in the devastated areas down South. Now is the time for all of us to get prepared with our earthquake/disaster kits because if the deal goes down… food, water and a way out… coupled with a plan to rendezvous with loved ones are all that really matter. This is earthquake country.. no more playing.. let’s get ready!
This is my rally cry… along with some common sense suggestions.. for those that I care for. What ever it is I want us all to get through it and survive.
– Your earthquake kits should include: A first aid kit, batteries, flashlights, candles, lighter, a sharp knife. At least eight big containers of water… peanut butter, power bars, tuna cans, a can opener pain reliever etc. Keep a case of water bottles in the trunk of you car. Don’t forget prescription medication (I’m sure i’m forgetting stuff but this is a start )
– Where will you go if we have to evacuate and how will you get there? The roads will be jammed– For some.. riding your bike to the south bay may be easiest.
– Make sure you have an out of state contact to call and be accounted for.
– Have pair of sneakers stored at your desk just in case you have to walk out to safety. It could be miles away!
– Shelters do not generally take animals. Figure out how you will deal with your pet now.
– Get renters insurance. Perhaps it doesn’t cover an earthquake but if your neighbor lights your home on fire at least you won’t be left without anything.
– If you have loved ones who will have special problems escaping (elderly, specially abled), you need to have a plan in place for them.
Again.. this is just a start but we must do something. We know that we live on the faults. We don’t have the the luxury of not being prepared any longer.
This is my love song.. let’s all take care. If anyone else has suggstions please pass them along.
